When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep?
InflationOne-OffRégulationHealth & MedicineCrime & JusticeManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2048-2054 15%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète12 août 26, 00:16 UTC1 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which a gene-editing therapy designed to safely and permanently reduce human sleep requirements becomes commercially or clinically available to consumers for a total cost of $10 million USD or less (including the therapeutic agents and the required medical procedure).
- To satisfy the resolution criteria, the therapy must meet the following conditions:
- Target Mechanism: The therapy must target genetic pathways scientifically associated with sleep duration or sleep efficiency (such as DEC2, ADRB1, NPSR1, GRM1, or equivalent sleep-regulating genes).
- Availability: The treatment must be legally accessible to paying patients, either via approval from a major regulatory body (e.g., the US FDA or EMA) or through a verified, legally operating commercial clinic (including medical tourism).
- Cost: The total retail or out-of-pocket price for a single patient must be publicly documented as $10 million USD or less (adjusted for inflation from 2026).