Prévision communautaire actuelle
2035 or earlier 84.3%En tête parmi 7 options
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17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 mars 24, 00:46 UTC1 janv. 35, 12:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?
Manifold MarketsBy which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle
