Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore January 1, 2027 36.8%+6.8ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+6.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète29 sept. 26, 18:31 UTC29 sept. 27, 18:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWill Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiWill Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release an image model before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the time period during which Anthropic officially announces or launches a developer-facing native decision API, "System One" model, or direct equivalent.
- To qualify, the API must be explicitly designed to return structured, typed decisions (such as calibrated probabilities, classification choices, or scores) rather than standard open-ended text completions, matching the paradigm established by TypeSafe’s Jev and OpenAI’s Decision API.
- Sources of Truth: Official announcements will be verified via the Anthropic News Blog or official Anthropic developer documentation.
- Resolution Dates: Resolution is based on the date of the public announcement of the API's availability (including private/public beta, developer preview, or general availability):
- the named outcome: Announced on or before December 31, 2026.
