What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
One-OffPolitiqueUS PoliticsÉlection1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Democratic House and Senate 49.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
106
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
15 nov. 24, 22:37 UTC4 nov. 26, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWho controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
KalshiHow many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
KalshiBalance of power after 2028 US elections?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power After the 2026 Midterms
SmarketsRègles
Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.
- In that case, the market will resolve to "Other" or an option stating that no party has the majority in the chamber if such an option has been added.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Smarkets — Balance of Power After the 2026 Midterms · Democrats Senate + Democrats House 44%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 51%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? · D-House, D-Senate 47%
- Également disponible sur PredictIt — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? · Dem. House & Senate 46%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 50%
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms? · Democrats Sweep 51%
Marchés ouverts
Politics
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Democratic House and Senate à 50% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? doit être résolu le 4 novembre 2026.
- Comment What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.