Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle1.75T+ 100%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète25 juin 26, 15:21 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsAn open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Total parameters
- At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
- This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models.
- For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
