Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.2%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard12 janv. 26, 17:58 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsWagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsWagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsChina's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15M tonnes in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?
ForecastExMortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The Wagerup gallium plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually.
- This market resolves YES if production in the trailing twelve months (T12M) as of Q2 2027 exceeds 10 tonnes.
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official quarterly or annual production reports, or verified third-party sources reporting Wagerup gallium output.
- The market resolves NO if T12M production as of Q2 2027 is 10 tonnes or below.
- Alcoa's Wagerup gallium plant is located at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with development supported by Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, through a Joint Development Agreement signed with Alcoa in August 2025.
