Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.4%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard28 févr. 26, 03:14 UTC1 janv. 29, 03:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which cutoffs will MAA announce in the 2026-27 competition cycle?
Manifold MarketsWill MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill I remain in Montreal past September?
Manifold MarketsWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRègles
Resolves N/A if we do not have evidence by the end of 2028.
- Resolves YES if we have evidence that factors other than index, graduation year, gender, cheating* or MOP/TST protection affected whether or not an individual was invited to USA(J)MO (any year).
- Examples of this include race/ethnicity, or region (within the US).
- Resolves NO if we have evidence (like a public statement from MAA, or real public cutoffs) that no external factors would used in determining qualification.
- *MAA disqualifying clear cheaters does not count for this market
- Does not resolve YES off of an unintentional mistake (e.g. MAA accidentally forgot to send some emails, leading to luck being a factor)
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt47.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt28.6%
- <40-3.0pt15.2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 35,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 11,8 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-67.0pt1%
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,4 k €
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Volume total
- 8,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Volume total
- 14,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 608,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 515,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 515,7 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 515,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 515,7 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Is Earth flat?
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 73% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased? sera-t-il résolu ?
- USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves N/A if we do not have evidence by the end of 2028.