US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026?
IAOne-OffUS PoliticsTech3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.9%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète25 août 25, 21:10 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle report combined 2027 capital expenditure above $600B?
Manifold MarketsWill The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiRègles
Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry
- I'm not entirely sure how to resolve complex mechanisms of ownership - I wouldn't count eg: the govt as an LP to a fund owning this share.
- Ask a question, or suggest a mechanism if you're unsure of resolution.
- This would definitely resolve YES if an Intel-style equity-for-subsidy deal happens leading to the federal govt owning >5%.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment US govt owns >=5% equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet or Meta or xAI by 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by: https://caithrin.substack.com/p/10-ownership-of-intel-should-worry