Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.4%
Prévisionnistes
253
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète2 juin 25, 23:07 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:44 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Donald Trump dies in office, who will President Vance choose as his Vice President?
Manifold MarketsTrump dies within 4 years after leaving office
Manifold MarketsWill António Guterres remain in office until the end of his 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This will resolve on inauguration day, January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM EST.
- If U.S. President Donald J. Trump is dead by that time, then the answer to this question is yes.
- This includes the possibility that he dies while J.D. Vance is the acting president if Trump is removed from office during his 2nd term.
- If Donald J. Trump is not dead by that time, then the answer to this question is no.
- This is regarding Trump's 2nd term as 47th president only and is regardless of any attempt that Trump makes to extend his term or run for a 3rd term.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump dies in office during his 2nd term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump dies in office during his 2nd term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump dies in office during his 2nd term? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Trump dies in office during his 2nd term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This will resolve on inauguration day, January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM EST.