third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
Opérations sur titresIAOne-OffTech8mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70%
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Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète23 mai 26, 16:58 UTC1 juil. 27, 16:55 UTC
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Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
PolymarketOpenAI IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
work in progress, will we see substantial charitable giving from the EA’s due to the ai labs IPOing?
- could resolve to my opinion or some tens of billions donated within the first year after both labs have ipo’d.
- reference: https://open.substack.com/pub/nanransohoff/p/the-third-wave-of-american-philanthropy?r=2jhh1&utm_medium=ios
- Update 2026-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):
- New commitments/pledges that are hard to wiggle out of (not just actual grants) can count as evidence for YES resolution, or could at least contribute to a percentage resolution.
- Political donations may count if they are primarily directed towards candidates that are running on charitable causes (e.g., animal welfare, AI safety)
