Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNo Supreme Court Justice Leaves 80.7%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète25 mars 26, 08:12 UTC3 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWill a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2026?
PredictItWill any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027.
- The market resolves to one of three outcomes:
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.