Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates 50%En tête parmi 3 options
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1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
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Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète2 avr. 26, 01:40 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRègles
A new paper from Google demonstrates that there are procedures that break 256-bit ECDLP over secp256k1 with, optionally:
- ≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
- ≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
- This question asks if improvements will be made to this frontier by EoY 2028.