Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 13:31 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.1%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard18 janv. 26, 20:26 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Manifold MarketsPierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
KalshiWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
