Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 82.5%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 26, 20:26 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
KalshiWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
Manifold MarketsMohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year sera-t-il résolu ?
- Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria