KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 86%
Qualité du marché
53 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
43 €
Liquidité
3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
9.2% / 14.0%
Écart
4.8 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
3 janv. 26, 15:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year
Manifold MarketsPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsDoug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?
KalshiRègles
If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership.
- An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect.
- This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership.
- Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices.
- Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
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- J.D. Vance50%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.