Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
5.1 pts (24h)One-OffPolitiqueÉlectionPolitique américaineÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20263mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Democrats control Congress 69%+5.1ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Democrats control Congress 69%+5.1ptPrévisionnistes
98
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+7.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 23, 14:47 UTC31 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWill there be demonstration larger than the one in 1978, before the US midterm elections 2026, for the ERA?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
PredictItRègles
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
