Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
30 mai 26, 19:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?
- Internal-only models count.
- If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.
- c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation
- I may trade on this market.
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