Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 73.8%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 57 minutes
En retard17 févr. 24, 01:46 UTC1 juil. 29, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI be worth less than $250 billion (in Jan 2025 dollars) at any point before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?
Manifold MarketsMicrosoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketStripe vs Databricks - greater valuation growth September 2026
PolymarketRègles
The English word "worth", not the SEC term "valued at".
- If a huge number of people or amount of money clearly believes that 1% of OpenAI is worth more than 1% of ms, and this is sincere, then YES
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,6 k €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029 sera-t-il résolu ?
- OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029 doit être résolu le 1 juillet 2029.
- Comment OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The English word "worth", not the SEC term "valued at".