Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 19 juil. 2026, 13:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelle≥$0.6T 100%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 jours
Obsolète22 avr. 26, 3:491 oct. 26, 3:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
≥$0.9T70%
Comparer les plateformes· ≥$0.6T
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global82% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 73% | — | 2,2 k € | 135,1 k € | il y a 19 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 100% | — | — | — | il y a 8 jours |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
1.6 pts5mo
73%
+1.5pt64%
+0.5pt53%
+12 résultats de plus
74 • Qualité moyenneSpread serréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total819,9 k €
Volume 24h2,2 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$4318 juil.2j de données19 juil.
Marchés Associés
SpaceX highest valuation by end of March 2027
246 €≥$1.5T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
145,9 €Oui: 72.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
87,9 €Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization": 78.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Anthropic IPO by __?
16,4 k €December 31,: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
3 k €Before Sep 1, 2026: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
671,7 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindeskRègles
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).