Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.8%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
10 sept. 26, 11:17 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsAnthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030
- If OpenAI is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
- Inspired by @/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030 credit @Bayesian
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 70,3 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.7%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 21,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 21,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 20,9 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030