Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93.4%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 45 minutes
En retard26 oct. 26, 22:48 UTC1 juin 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will exponential time horizon growth break?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Context: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/
- I'll resolve based on the consensus of the mathematical community at market close.
- For intuition (these are not binding rules, more like, rough guidelines):
- If it's demonstrated to be incorrect before the close date, then this can resolve NO early.
- If at market close there's no particular evidence to doubt its validity, by default resolves YES.
- If there's substantial ongoing work to verify it, I will leave the market closed and wait to resolve until it doesn't seem like that work is still ongoing.