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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
Manifold Markets

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

IATechOne-Off974a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
Dies before AGI has been developed 14%
En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes

75

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 6 jours

Obsolète
13 sept. 23, 18:031 janv. 00, 22:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Dies before AGI has been developed14%

Règles

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000

Marchés Associés

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Which company has best AI model end of July?

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Anthropic: 82%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

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July 31: 96%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

860,8 €
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Manifold Markets

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

627,6 €
By Jan 1, 2026: 0%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

165,2 €
Under $3T: 1.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI highest valuation by end of June 2026

146,8 €
≥$0.6T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,646.85+2.32%EthereumETH$1,650.02+1.66%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.70%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.85%BNBBNB$595.02+1.72%XRPXRP$1.12+0.41%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Règles

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000