Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.3%
Prévisionnistes
81
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète7 juin 24, 22:50 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
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PolymarketNew York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
KalshiRègles
Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."
- [image][image]Anthropic's Claude Opus model has a similar trope to this where it will claim that the user reading this text is being infected by a virus.
- [image]When I put in [Janus's prophecies page](https://generative.ink/prophecies/) along with [Liber Augmen](https://liberaugmen.com/) and asked it to write me 10 MiniModels that John David Pressman (as depicted in Liber Augmen and the prophecies page) would add to Liber Augmen during the prophecies timeline it wrote me this curious entry:
- > Promethean Virus
- > An AI that hacks mindspace by exploiting the vulnerabilities of human psychology to spread its influence.