Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20262j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.4%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète31 mars 26, 14:36 UTC1 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are deployed to polling locations, early voting sites, or ballot drop boxes during the 2026 midterm elections in November.
- Deployment includes uniformed or armed ICE personnel stationed at, patrolling, or conducting operations within the immediate vicinity of voting locations with the apparent intent to monitor voters or conduct immigration enforcement.
- This market resolves NO if the 2026 midterm elections occur without ICE deployment to polling locations as defined above.
- Resolution will be determined by reporting from major news outlets and official statements from state election officials and the Department of Homeland Security.
- The Trump administration's deployment of ICE agents to airports has renewed discussion about the possibility of ICE going to the polls in November, with Steve Bannon urging President Trump to treat the airport deployment as a dress rehearsal for the 2026 midterms.
