Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète10 mars 26, 05:35 UTC10 mars 27, 06:31 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve "yes" if the person behind the account Conradin, as seen on glowfic and AO3, is revealed to be Eliezer Yudkowsky or to otherwise be posting content substantively written by them.
- It will resolve as no if this is revealed to be false,.
- If the question for some reason becomes unanswerable, or a situation emerges where it would have been revealed if it was true, I will attempt to resolve it as accurately as possible with the information available.
- In other cases it will remain unresolved until a conclusion is reached.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+46.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.9pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 659,9 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,8 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-17.0pt68%
- No32%
- Volume total
- 3,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 k €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,8 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-6.0pt34%
- Significant increase-31.4pt10%
- Volume total
- 49,8 k €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky? doit être résolu le 10 mars 2027.
- Comment Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will resolve "yes" if the person behind the account Conradin, as seen on glowfic and AO3, is revealed to be Eliezer Yudkowsky or to otherwise be posting content substantively written by them.