Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
One-OffSociety & Culture3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 63.9%
Prévisionnistes
83
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète31 août 23, 02:38 UTC1 janv. 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
https://glowfic.com/users/884
- Clarification on co-authorship: I would resolve it YES if Eliezer is cowriting even if he's not writing the whole thing, NO if it's entirely written by another author who is asking him a large number of questions behind the scene.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 136,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://glowfic.com/users/884