Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 29 oct. 2026, 13:24 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 86%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète1 juil. 26, 01:28 UTC1 juil. 27, 01:16 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking
