Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMarch 13 0%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
10 mars 26, 1:011 janv. 27, 0:58
Tendances
0%
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
June 301%
Comparer les plateformes· Dec 31
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Iran leadership change by which date?
0.8%5mo
-2.5%37%
-5.0%21%
-1.0%12%
+7 résultats de plus
73 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total18,4 M €
Volume 24h153,8 k €
POLYMARKET
Également disponible sur Futuur
Iran leadership change by which date?
5mo
30%
5%
4%
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total355,1 €
Volume 24h0 €
FUTUURRègles
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$3.0k38.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaI-2 h
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaI-2 h$4.1k93.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll-9 h
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll-9 h$10.0k98.5%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdiohier
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdiohier$1.5k96.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90avant-hier
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90avant-hier$2.9k73.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANavant-hier
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANavant-hier$4.9k93.3%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo-5 j
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo-5 j$2.2k94.9%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism-6 j
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism-6 j$6.3k96.4%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney-10 j
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney-10 jTendance du volume
$158 juil.9j de données26 juil.
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Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.