If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?
PolitiqueOne-OffWeatherUS PoliticsÉlection1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.6%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète9 mars 24, 21:37 UTC2 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Global CO2 Emissions in 2025
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 41,000 million metric tons in 2026?
ForecastExParis Accord goal of reducing global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 43%: achieved by the end of 2030?
FutuurWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?
- I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset.
- In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons.
- Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.
- If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- If the total number for 2025 is 4.8 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? doit être résolu le 2 novembre 2026.
- Comment If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?