If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionCriminalité et justiceÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20262mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.1%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète29 janv. 26, 18:18 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Libertarian candidate in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas get 1% or more of the vote?
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Manifold MarketsWill James Talarico win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExTexas Governor election: Greg Abbott vote percent
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if Governor Greg Abbott refuses to certify or sign the Certificate of Election for a U.S. Senate winner in the 2026 general election (November 3, 2026), provided that either James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett wins the Democratic primary and subsequently wins the general election.
- The market resolves NO if Abbott certifies and signs the Certificate of Election for the winner within the statutory timeframe (by approximately day 33 post-election per Texas Election Code § 67.010).
- For resolution purposes, "refusal to certify" includes: (1) explicitly refusing to sign the official canvass declaration or Certificate of Election; (2) indefinitely delaying the signing beyond the statutory deadline without legal justification;(3) withholding the Certificate despite a court order to sign it; or (4) certifying and signing a Certificate of Election declaring that the losing candidate won the election.
- The market resolves N/A if neither Talarico nor Crockett wins the Democratic primary, or if neither Democratic nominee wins the general election.
- The Democrat will be counted as having won if they lead the vote after the initial count by a sufficiently large margin that wouldn't be changed in a fair recount, even if there are accusations of irregularities by the state government.
- If the margin is less than 0.5% and a fair recount changes the outcome from D to R, the market will N/A.
