If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitique2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 54.6%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
31 déc. 24, 13:07 UTC21 janv. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans lose the house, will Mike Johnson serve out the whole of his next term?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketRègles
High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate
- Militias like the Proud Boys count
- MAGA-aligned independent would count
- Needs to have had a significant (>=10%) chance of success, according to traders' opinions
- Aborted plan or random document doesn't count
- Plan needs to be executed, or disrupted by law enforcement