If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlectionGéopolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète31 déc. 24, 13:07 UTC21 janv. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
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PolymarketRègles
High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate
- Militias like the Proud Boys count
- MAGA-aligned independent would count
- Needs to have had a significant (>=10%) chance of success, according to traders' opinions
- Aborted plan or random document doesn't count
- Plan needs to be executed, or disrupted by law enforcement
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate