Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle1 85.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 26, 04:26 UTC20 janv. 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
KalshiWill Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiWill a new Constitutional Amendment be added during Trump's term?
KalshiWhat percent of Project 2025 will be accomplished by the end of Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.
- Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the physical Nobel Prize medal(s) in Trump's possession or ownership, not the prize designation itself.
- The medal can be transferred or change hands regardless of who originally won the Nobel Prize.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 1 à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.