Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.3%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
22 oct. 26, 21:06 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:02 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ilhan Omar be a US House member on 1 Feb 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a public DNA verification, if conducted, prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi is Ilhan Omar's brother?
Manifold MarketsWill Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?
KalshiWill Ilhan Omar be deported by which date?
PolymarketIlhan Omar arrested by which date?
PolymarketUS files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves according to a consensus of popular reporting at the end of 2028 (or earlier, if this consensus arises).
- If there's an open debate and reporting disagrees on the subject, or even if reporting refuses to touch this story with a 10-foot pole but most traders on here have convincing evidence supporting or rejecting this thesis, then this may resolve according to my judgment, consulting with other Manifold moderators / superusers / expert forecasters.
- I will obviously not bet on this market.
- Yes, half-siblings count.
- Resolves to the spirit of the question.
- If her ex-husband was, say, her adopted brother, but DNA tests show no relation, his would still count as well.