Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.5%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète27 nov. 25, 18:29 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiMike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketWho will win the January 2027 Speaker of the House election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Speaker of the House?
Manifold MarketsWill the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House.
- However, it's possible that some Republicans will leave, or that Democrats will win some special elections for seats currently held by Republicans.
- Thus, I think there's some chance that Democrats will have a majority in the House before the next Congress starts (i.e. before January 3, 2027).
- This question resolves YES if a Democrat is elected Speaker of the House by the end of 2026.
- (I think edge cases are unlikely, but: if the House Speaker is a member of the House, then resolution will be based on whether they caucus with the Democrats; otherwise, it'll be based on party registration.)
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House.