Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 53.4%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 août 26, 19:19 UTC25 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth in September
KalshiWill Coca Cola Stop using AI to generate their Christmas Commercial before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWill an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
Resolves yes if over 50% of the pixels in Coca-Cola's most widely broadcast Christmas Commercial are generated by an AI model.
- Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be determined by:
- Official reporting or company statements
- Subjective judgment of the creator and others regarding the commercial's appearance, if no official sources are available
- Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the determination feels close, the creator will err on the side of resolving YES.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 53% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? doit être résolu le 25 décembre 2026.
- Comment Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if over 50% of the pixels in Coca-Cola's most widely broadcast Christmas Commercial are generated by an AI model.