Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.7%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète18 juin 25, 18:19 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first Mars landing occur?
Manifold MarketsWhich milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
Manifold Markets🏈 San Francisco 49ers (NFL) Prop Bets 🎲
Manifold MarketsLas Vegas vs San Francisco
KalshiHighest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 28, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the California High-Speed Rail (HSR) system becomes operational between San Francisco and Los Angeles before a human lands alive on Mars. "Operational" is defined as the commencement of regular passenger service along the full route connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles.
- A "human landing on Mars" is defined as a human arriving on the Martian surface alive.
- The resolution will be based on official announcements from the California High-Speed Rail Authority and credible space agencies or organizations involved in Mars missions.
- The California High-Speed Rail project aims to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles via a 494-mile route.
- As of March 2024, the project has faced significant delays and cost overruns, with no set timeline for the full route's completion.
