Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90.4% au 31 octobre 2026.

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 90.4%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 18 heures

Obsolète

3 oct. 23, 12:05 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856.

Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no.
So, market, obviously.
Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.