Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58%
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13
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète20 juil. 24, 09:36 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This question aims to test whether AI systems will approach the breadth and maturity of the professional mathematical community before 2028.
- Currently, the On-line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences (OEIS) collects several dozen new sequences per day, meaning up to thousands of new sequences can be collected for AI evals.
- In mid-2027, I will create or sponsor efforts (or defer to sufficiently high-quality outside evaluations or benchmarks) to determine how well frontier AI systems can suggest reasonable and mathematically sound explanations for new OEIS sequences (when given terms from the sequence, and possibly hints about the domain of the intended explanation).
- This question resolves YES if the best AI systems match or outperform a baseline on this task involving groups of professional human mathematicians working together across several hours, with access to outside references.
- Some more details on judging:
- I will generally accept outcomes where AI systems mostly give their answers from a subset of mathematics (combinatorics, number theory, algebra, etc), as long as they are able to provide answers judged as acceptably important, relevant, and elegant, in consultation with the mathematical community.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question aims to test whether AI systems will approach the breadth and maturity of the professional mathematical community before 2028.