Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering? ?

Manifold Markets cote 2029-01-01 à 86.3% au 30 octobre 2026.

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

One-OffIA Tech2a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

2029-01-01 86.3%

En tête parmi 6 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Variation 7j

0.0 pts

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 12 heures

Obsolète

20 juin 24, 18:30 UTC2 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Options are inclusive: if this happens tomorrow then all options resolve to YES.

This market will of course resolve somewhat subjectively.
The overall idea is "there is a model that I can use instead of hiring an intern".
Some things I expect such a model to be able to do:
Take a paper as input and give a runnable rough draft implementation (does not need to be bug free)
Experiment with hyperparameters for an existing model ("grad student descent")