Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.6%
Prévisionnistes
62
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 22:33 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
LimitlessRègles
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
- Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
- China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
- Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand [ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment [ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.