Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.5%
Prévisionnistes
68
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 22:33 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
Manifold MarketsWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
- Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
- China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
- Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.