![🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252FqUqhg0h2Ql.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df978e3d8-b66c-45f6-a5ae-88c9fa1fe3f5&w=128&q=80)
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min 100%En tête parmi 135 options
Prévisionnistes
360
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
22 mai 25, 19:43 UTC30 sept. 26, 22:36 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold Markets✨ Improve my life? ✨ [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props (add options)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiRègles
If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO
- If the change is distinguishable AND is better, resolves YES
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does not greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves NO
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves YES
- If I determine the change is too difficult (I have my own mill but sifting by hand could be maybe too tedious?, stuff like grow my own wheat), I am liable to resolve that option N/A
- If I determine the change departs too far from the categories "bread" or "loaf of bread" (such as suggesting I make a bread bowl with split pea soup😋 or a BLT 😋 or cinnamon rolls 😋), resolves N/A
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min à 100% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] sera-t-il résolu ?
- 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO