LimitlessVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
25 bps increase 73.5%En tête parmi 5 options
25 bps increase 73.5%Qualité du marché
22 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
31 oct. 26, 11:51 UTC10 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "the named outcome" bracket.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence inter-plateformes de CoinRithm pour 25 bps increase est de 74%. L'écart entre plateformes est d'environ 1 point de pourcentage. Les plateformes ne s'accordent pas sur l'issue en tête.
Référence CoinRithm 25 bps increase 74% · 2 plateformes · 1 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Fed Decision in December? · 25 bps increase 75%
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Fed decision in December? · Increase 74%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Fed decision in Dec 2026? · Hike 25bps 73%
- Également disponible sur Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in December 2026 · Hike 25bps 70%
