KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Before Oct 1, 2026 (81%)
Résolu: 30 sept. 2026, 17:40
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
Before Oct 1, 2026
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
28%
SurpriseAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 30 sept. 2026, 17:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Before Nov 1, 202667%
Before Oct 1, 202681%
Before Jan 1, 2027Perdu
Before Nov 1, 2026Perdu
Before Oct 1, 2026Gagné
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
Manifold MarketsWill China establish a new military base in another country by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Règles archivées au niveau de l'événement. Les conditions exactes de chaque résultat ne sont plus disponibles.
If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.