KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2027 56%En tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
65 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
10,4 k €
Liquidité
6,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
22 sept. 26, 20:00 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
KalshiXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+0.4pt100%
- October 31+0.1pt100%
- September 24+0.3pt100%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 280,2 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- China (5+ times)-19.0pt56%
- Peace47%
- Melania+12.0pt39%
+24 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 103,8 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 12,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 56 k €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt91.9%
- Moonshot-0.8pt5%
- Z.ai1%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 37,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 31,2 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 24?
- 23°C+35.5pt55.2%
- 24°C-0.5pt20%
- 25°C-11.0pt12.4%
+8 résultats de plus
- Taipei Mayor Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- China PR vs Maldives
- How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- AI bubble burst by which date?
- Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- VALORANT Champions 2026: Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 1, 2027 à 56% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.