Prévision communautaire actuelle
2030-2034 48%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète28 mars 25, 12:27 UTC1 janv. 51, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain.
- This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5 nm process node or smaller with competitive yields - at least 70%.
- Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 70% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.
