KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 77%
Qualité du marché
45 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
823 €
Liquidité
1,1 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
13.0% / 22.0%
Écart
9.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
13 sept. 26, 20:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats
SmarketsGeorgia vs. Northern Ireland
PolymarketRègles
If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 77% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.