How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
6.0 pts (24h)YearlyPolitiqueUS PoliticsÉlection
KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: 5 (97%)
Résolu: 16 sept. 2026, 16:15
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
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Probabilité implicite actuelle
5 95.1%+7.1ptEn tête parmi 5 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
7,8 k €
Liquidité
108,9 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 jours
Obsolète18 janv. 26, 17:00 UTC3 nov. 26, 15:00 UTC
Chronologie des Probabilités
591%
7 or more2%
95.1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketIf Republicans lose the Senate and Alito has not left the Court, will he leave before the new senators are seated?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRègles
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Federal RegisterThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox News
- To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
- If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.