Israeli legislative election: % of vote below threshold
2.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionMoyen-Orient3mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
At least 4% · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
At least 4% 54.5%En tête parmi 9 options
At least 4% 54.5%Qualité du marché
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
1,4 k €
Intérêt ouvert
3,7 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
At least 4%Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
22 oct. 26, 22:00 UTC3 févr. 27, 15:00 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · At least 4%
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurIsraeli legislative election winner?
KalshiRègles
If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 6% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Central Elections Committee for the Knesset
- The value is the combined percentage of valid votes cast for all lists that fail the 3.25% electoral threshold in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election (the lists allocated no seats), calculated as 100 × (the sum of the votes received by those lists ÷ total valid votes) using the per-list vote totals and total valid votes in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results, rounded to two decimal places. Whether a list passes the threshold is decided on unrounded vote totals: a list whose unrounded share is 3.25% or more is not counted, and only the combined value is rounded. A joint list counts as one list. A list that has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot is counted if the results record votes for it. Preliminary results do not qualify. Invalid ballots are excluded from the numerator and the denominator. If no qualifying results are released by expiration, the market resolves to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange.
Règles de chaque résultat
- At least 4%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 4% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 5% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 6% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 8%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 8% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 9%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 9% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 2% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 3% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 7% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 10%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 10% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.