KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune activité de trading
Données au 14 sept. 2026, 19:49 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2027 0%
Qualité du marché
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueAchat / Vente
20.0% / 30.0%
Écart
10.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
10 sept. 26, 02:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is James fishback a stunt?
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Manifold MarketsWill any Manifest attendees be elected to public office in 2026 or earlier?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:James FishbackThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
- The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-4.0pt72.3%
- Yes+4.0pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 14,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 753,9 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt48.5%
- D-House, R-Senate35%
- R-House, R-Senate-2.0pt14.6%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+19.0pt63%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+14.0pt54%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+16.0pt52%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt13%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt51.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva46.5%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.5pt36.1%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt27.8%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 1, 2027 à 0% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.