Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?
10.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlection2a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jul 1, 2029 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jul 1, 2029 42.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Before Jul 1, 2029 42.5%Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0,9 €
Intérêt ouvert
444,6 €
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
— / —
Before Jul 1, 2029Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 33 minutes
10 oct. 26, 19:45 UTC1 juil. 29, 03:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jul 1, 2029
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026?
FutuurGiorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?
KalshiNarendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?
KalshiSanae Takaichi announces departure as Prime Minister of Japan?
KalshiWho will be Prime Minister of Canada after Mark Carney?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiRègles
If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Mark CarneyThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersOffice of the Prime Minister of CanadaCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that Mark Carney will not lead the Liberal Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election, for example once a new Liberal leader is chosen. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jul 1, 2029
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2028
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
