KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 91%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
375,8 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
7.0% / 9.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
12 août 26, 00:46 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains.
- Legislation qualifies if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, whether through a rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, a change in applicable thresholds, a change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism.
- Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer’s overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, do not qualify.
- A qualifying change may be temporary and need not take effect before the specified deadline, provided the legislation becomes law within the specified time period.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 12,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 90,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,8 M €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 877 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5 k €
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.