FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune cotation en direct
Données au 27 oct. 2026, 21:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 11%
December 31 11%Qualité du marché
23 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
316,3 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
11
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS strike on Colombia by which date?
PolymarketWill the US strike Cuba by ?
FutuurWhich country will the US strike next?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against legitimate targets inside the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Mexico between this event’s creation date and the deadline specified in the title (the “Event Period”).
- A qualifying “US strike on Mexico” means kinetic military action by U.S. armed forces (e.g., air, missile, naval or ground strikes) that hits targets in Mexican territory, airspace, or territorial waters, authorized and conducted by the U.S. government as a military action.
- For the purposes of this market, the following clearly do not qualify as “US strikes”:
- Border incidents involving law enforcement or security forces without U.S. military authorization; Cooperative joint operations with Mexican forces; Counter-drug interdictions by U.S. agencies without formal military command involvement; Accidental or collateral exchanges of fire at or near the border where no official U.S. military operation is declared; Any action not officially described by the U.S. government as a military strike.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official public statement or document confirming such a strike from either (i) the U.S. Department of Defense, (ii) the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or (iii) the U.S. Department of War equivalent authority.
- If a qualifying U.S. military strike on Mexico is confirmed by the PDS during the Event Period, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — US strike on Mexico by...? · December 31 3%
